Occupation · 2026 assessment

Mashinist kotlov

Mashinist kotlov is an occupation responsible for setup and operation of machinery with control of accuracy, output and tool condition. The profile assesses automation of individual tasks rather than disappearance of the whole occupation.

Moderate risk level Search jobs ↗
How risk may change

A forecast estimate, not a guaranteed scenario.

54%2026
57%2028
61%2030
67%2035

Which tasks are exposed

Risk applies to individual tasks—not to a person or an entire occupation.

TaskRisk
Operating along a predictable route68%
Monitoring vehicle state through telemetry26%
Decisions in emergency or unpredictable conditions16%
Setting up a standard production cycle50%
Visual quality control of serial production30%
Planning equipment utilization26%
Repeatable physical operations on a line68%
Diagnosing a non-standard equipment fault43%

Task map

AI replaces ↔ AI augments

Each task is positioned by AI capability and the degree of human involvement still required.

  1. 1Operating along a predictable routeAI 68% · human 49%
  2. 2Monitoring vehicle state through telemetryAI 26% · human 73%
  3. 3Decisions in emergency or unpredictable conditionsAI 16% · human 68%
  4. 4Setting up a standard production cycleAI 50% · human 67%
  5. 5Visual quality control of serial productionAI 30% · human 68%
  6. 6Planning equipment utilizationAI 26% · human 74%
  7. 7Repeatable physical operations on a lineAI 68% · human 53%
  8. 8Diagnosing a non-standard equipment faultAI 43% · human 64%

Why technology can change this work

  • autopilot gradually takes control in constrained, well-mapped environments
  • serial operations fit industrial robots
  • sensors and computer vision automate quality control
  • planning and maintenance are moving to predictive systems

What protects the occupation

  • operation in bad weather, road works and unpredictable human behavior
  • equipment setup and non-standard fault resolution
  • production safety accountability
  • variable materials and low-volume processes

United States · before tax

Average pay and outlook

Estimated nominal monthly pay. The scenario reflects sector, demand and task resilience; it is not a guarantee of income.

2026$5 500per month
2035$7 450scenario estimate
2026: $5 50020262027: $5 70020272028: $5 90020282029: $6 10020292030: $6 30020302031: $6 50020312032: $6 70020322033: $6 95020332034: $7 20020342035: $7 4502035
Find jobs ↗The partner link may contain referral parameters. Data benchmark: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ↗

Job search and transitions

Find work with a lower risk index

Compare adjacent paths and open a current search for the selected occupation.

Skills you already have

  • spatial attention
  • emergency response
  • manufacturing-process understanding
  • equipment operation
  • quality control
  • occupational safety

Skills to build

  • remote autonomous-vehicle supervision
  • telemetry work
  • industrial robotics
  • predictive maintenance
  • computer vision
  • manufacturing digital twins
CurrentMashinist kotlov · 54%
→
Keepspatial attention · emergency response · manufacturing-process understanding
→
Addremote autonomous-vehicle supervision · telemetry work · industrial robotics

Sources and update

Updated: 2026-09-26 · Assessment confidence: Medium

International Labour Organization · 2025Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure

Nearly 30,000 tasks; a global assessment of GenAI exposure across detailed occupational groups.

World Economic Forum · 2025The Future of Jobs Report 2025

A survey of more than 1,000 employers representing over 14 million workers across 55 economies.

O*NET Resource Center · 2026O*NET Database

Occupational, task, skill and work-context structure.