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Occupation · 2026 assessment

Head of budget policy Department

The Head of budget policy Department role combines repeatable operations with decisions that require professional context. The index measures task exposure to AI, software automation and robotics—not the probability that the occupation disappears.

Low risk level Search jobs ↗
How risk may change

A forecast estimate, not a guaranteed scenario.

23%2026
29%2028
36%2030
46%2035

Which tasks are exposed

Risk applies to individual tasks—not to a person or an entire occupation.

TaskRisk
Receiving and classifying applications and documents47%
Preparing standard responses and certificates47%
Checking compliance with formal requirements44%
Analyzing indicators and resource allocation37%
Working with citizens and conflicting interests10%
Public-authority decisions and accountability4%

Task map

AI replaces ↔ AI augments

Each task is positioned by AI capability and the degree of human involvement still required.

  1. 1Receiving and classifying applications and documentsAI 47% · human 79%
  2. 2Preparing standard responses and certificatesAI 47% · human 73%
  3. 3Checking compliance with formal requirementsAI 44% · human 69%
  4. 4Analyzing indicators and resource allocationAI 37% · human 72%
  5. 5Working with citizens and conflicting interestsAI 10% · human 88%
  6. 6Public-authority decisions and accountabilityAI 4% · human 87%

Why technology can change this work

  • AI prepares reports, plans, minutes and management options
  • applications, registers and interagency documents are becoming digital
  • standard requests and checks follow formal rules
  • AI helps detect issues and draft decisions

What protects the occupation

  • accountability for people, priorities and conflicting interests
  • public authority and personal accountability
  • a large share of value comes from human judgement, trust or personal accountability
  • balancing citizen and organizational interests
  • political, social and legal consequences

United States · before tax

Average pay and outlook

Estimated nominal monthly pay. The scenario reflects sector, demand and task resilience; it is not a guarantee of income.

2026$9 400per month
2035$12 700scenario estimate
2026: $9 40020262027: $9 70020272028: $10 05020282029: $10 40020292030: $10 75020302031: $11 10020312032: $11 50020322033: $11 90020332034: $12 30020342035: $12 7002035
Find jobs ↗The partner link may contain referral parameters. Data benchmark: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ↗

Practical next step

Where to move next

Do not restart from zero: carry your experience forward and add scarce skills.

Digital Identity Architect

Emerging role
New role risk15%
DemandHighDifficultyMediumTime6–12 monthsSkill fit66%

Cyber Resilience Planner

Emerging role
New role risk17%
DemandHighDifficultyMediumTime6–12 monthsSkill fit64%

Smart Infrastructure Operator

Emerging role
New role risk20%
DemandHighDifficultyHighTime12–24 monthsSkill fit54%

AI Governance Specialist

Emerging role
New role risk18%
DemandHighDifficultyHighTime12–24 monthsSkill fit52%

AI Policy Analyst

Emerging role
New role risk16%
DemandHighDifficultyLowTime3–6 monthsSkill fit81%

Future of Work Analyst

Emerging role
New role risk28%
DemandHighDifficultyLowTime3–6 monthsSkill fit81%

Job search and transitions

Find work with a lower risk index

Compare adjacent paths and open a current search for the selected occupation.

Skills you already have

  • goal setting
  • people management
  • resource allocation
  • regulatory process understanding
  • citizen-case work
  • decision preparation

Skills to build

  • AI-enabled team management
  • auditing AI management recommendations
  • public data governance
  • algorithmic decision auditing
  • digital identity
  • public-sector cyber resilience
CurrentHead of budget policy Department · 23%
→
Keepgoal setting · people management · resource allocation
→
AddAI-enabled team management · auditing AI management recommendations · public data governance

Sources and update

Updated: 2026-09-25 · Assessment confidence: Medium

International Labour Organization · 2025Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure

Nearly 30,000 tasks; a global assessment of GenAI exposure across detailed occupational groups.

World Economic Forum · 2025The Future of Jobs Report 2025

A survey of more than 1,000 employers representing over 14 million workers across 55 economies.

O*NET Resource Center · 2026O*NET Database

Occupational, task, skill and work-context structure.