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Occupation · 2026 assessment

Bus Driver

The Bus Driver role combines repeatable operations with decisions that require professional context. The index measures task exposure to AI, software automation and robotics—not the probability that the occupation disappears.

Moderate risk level Search jobs ↗
How risk may change

A forecast estimate, not a guaranteed scenario.

45%2026
49%2028
54%2030
61%2035

Which tasks are exposed

Risk applies to individual tasks—not to a person or an entire occupation.

TaskRisk
Operating along a predictable route64%
Monitoring vehicle state through telemetry47%
Decisions in emergency or unpredictable conditions24%
Route building and time estimation56%
Preparing trip documentation60%
Monitoring telemetry and vehicle condition47%
Operating on a standard route61%
Responding to emergency or unusual conditions38%

Task map

AI replaces ↔ AI augments

Each task is positioned by AI capability and the degree of human involvement still required.

  1. 1Operating along a predictable routeAI 64% · human 47%
  2. 2Monitoring vehicle state through telemetryAI 47% · human 63%
  3. 3Decisions in emergency or unpredictable conditionsAI 24% · human 62%
  4. 4Route building and time estimationAI 56% · human 54%
  5. 5Preparing trip documentationAI 60% · human 56%
  6. 6Monitoring telemetry and vehicle conditionAI 47% · human 56%
  7. 7Operating on a standard routeAI 61% · human 58%
  8. 8Responding to emergency or unusual conditionsAI 38% · human 69%

Why technology can change this work

  • autopilot gradually takes control in constrained, well-mapped environments
  • routing and dispatch are already algorithmically optimized
  • driver-assistance systems take more control functions
  • autonomous transport is advancing in predictable environments

What protects the occupation

  • operation in bad weather, road works and unpredictable human behavior
  • responsibility for passenger and cargo safety
  • response to unusual road conditions
  • work in mixed human-machine-infrastructure environments

United States · before tax

Average pay and outlook

Estimated nominal monthly pay. The scenario reflects sector, demand and task resilience; it is not a guarantee of income.

2026$5 350per month
2035$7 250scenario estimate
2026: $5 35020262027: $5 55020272028: $5 70020282029: $5 90020292030: $6 10020302031: $6 30020312032: $6 55020322033: $6 75020332034: $7 00020342035: $7 2502035
Find jobs ↗The partner link may contain referral parameters. Data benchmark: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ↗

Practical next step

Where to move next

Do not restart from zero: carry your experience forward and add scarce skills.

Autonomous Vehicle Safety Operator

Emerging role
New role risk17%
DemandHighDifficultyLowTime3–6 monthsSkill fit89%

Robotics Maintenance Planner

Emerging role
New role risk15%
DemandHighDifficultyMediumTime6–12 monthsSkill fit68%

Robot Fleet Manager

Emerging role
New role risk12%
DemandHighDifficultyMediumTime6–12 monthsSkill fit66%

Last-Mile Drone Coordinator

Emerging role
New role risk25%
DemandHighDifficultyMediumTime6–12 monthsSkill fit66%

Autonomous Vehicle Remote Assistance Specialist

Emerging role
New role risk29%
DemandHighDifficultyLowTime3–6 monthsSkill fit81%

Drone Traffic Manager

Emerging role
New role risk18%
DemandHighDifficultyLowTime3–6 monthsSkill fit81%

Job search and transitions

Find work with a lower risk index

Compare adjacent paths and open a current search for the selected occupation.

Autonomous Vehicle Remote Assistance Specialist

Skill fit 81% · risk 29%

Search jobs ↗

Skills you already have

  • spatial attention
  • emergency response
  • traffic-situation assessment
  • safe operation
  • route and regulation knowledge
  • fault response

Skills to build

  • remote autonomous-vehicle supervision
  • telemetry work
  • autonomous-system supervision
  • vehicle telemetry
  • remote vehicle assistance
  • robotic-vehicle diagnostics
CurrentBus Driver · 45%
→
Keepspatial attention · emergency response · traffic-situation assessment
→
Addremote autonomous-vehicle supervision · telemetry work · autonomous-system supervision

Sources and update

Updated: 2026-09-25 · Assessment confidence: Medium

International Labour Organization · 2025Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure

Nearly 30,000 tasks; a global assessment of GenAI exposure across detailed occupational groups.

World Economic Forum · 2025The Future of Jobs Report 2025

A survey of more than 1,000 employers representing over 14 million workers across 55 economies.

O*NET Resource Center · 2026O*NET Database

Occupational, task, skill and work-context structure.