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Occupation · 2026 assessment

Plumber

The Plumber role combines repeatable operations with decisions that require professional context. The index measures task exposure to AI, software automation and robotics—not the probability that the occupation disappears.

Very low risk level Search jobs ↗
How risk may change

A forecast estimate, not a guaranteed scenario.

10%2026
12%2028
14%2030
19%2035

Which tasks are exposed

Risk applies to individual tasks—not to a person or an entire occupation.

TaskRisk
Diagnostics using fault codes and telemetry16%
Planning scheduled maintenance18%
Physical repair of a non-standard fault3%
Preliminary diagnosis from images and sensor readings14%
Calculating materials and preparing a work plan17%
Installation and repair in an unpredictable physical environment3%
Bookings, reminders and standard messages23%
Initial diagnosis of a standard request15%

Task map

AI replaces ↔ AI augments

Each task is positioned by AI capability and the degree of human involvement still required.

  1. 1Diagnostics using fault codes and telemetryAI 16% · human 86%
  2. 2Planning scheduled maintenanceAI 18% · human 93%
  3. 3Physical repair of a non-standard faultAI 3% · human 86%
  4. 4Preliminary diagnosis from images and sensor readingsAI 14% · human 83%
  5. 5Calculating materials and preparing a work planAI 17% · human 82%
  6. 6Installation and repair in an unpredictable physical environmentAI 3% · human 94%
  7. 7Bookings, reminders and standard messagesAI 23% · human 90%
  8. 8Initial diagnosis of a standard requestAI 15% · human 87%

Why technology can change this work

  • predictive diagnostics identify likely failure points in advance
  • AI improves fault diagnostics and job planning but does not perform all physical repairs
  • booking, communication and routine advice move to digital services
  • robots gradually learn standardized operations
  • AI helps diagnose problems and select solutions

What protects the occupation

  • physical diagnosis, repair and post-intervention equipment validation
  • work in confined, old and unpredictable sites
  • a large share of value comes from human judgement, trust or personal accountability
  • the physical environment is too variable for near-term full robotics automation
  • fine motor skills and safe physical intervention
  • hands-on work in unpredictable environments

United States · before tax

Average pay and outlook

Estimated nominal monthly pay. The scenario reflects sector, demand and task resilience; it is not a guarantee of income.

2026$4 100per month
2035$6 100scenario estimate
2026: $4 10020262027: $4 30020272028: $4 50020282029: $4 70020292030: $4 90020302031: $5 10020312032: $5 35020322033: $5 60020332034: $5 85020342035: $6 1002035
Find jobs ↗The partner link may contain referral parameters. Data benchmark: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ↗

Practical next step

Where to move next

Do not restart from zero: carry your experience forward and add scarce skills.

Automation Specialist

Established resilient role
New role risk27%
DemandHighDifficultyMediumTime6–12 monthsSkill fit66%

Robotics Technician

Established resilient role
New role risk18%
DemandHighDifficultyMediumTime6–12 monthsSkill fit64%

Operations Manager

Established resilient role
New role risk32%
DemandMediumDifficultyLowTime3–6 monthsSkill fit83%

Electrician

Established resilient role
New role risk12%
DemandHighDifficultyMediumTime6–12 monthsSkill fit60%

AI Literacy Instructor

Emerging role
New role risk15%
DemandHighDifficultyMediumTime6–12 monthsSkill fit62%

Robot Human Factors Specialist

Emerging role
New role risk11%
DemandHighDifficultyMediumTime6–12 monthsSkill fit58%

Job search and transitions

Find work with a lower risk index

Compare adjacent paths and open a current search for the selected occupation.

Skills you already have

  • fault finding
  • maintenance
  • safe equipment work
  • tool use
  • safe installation
  • needs diagnosis

Skills to build

  • predictive maintenance
  • telemetry-based diagnostics
  • smart buildings
  • sensors and remote diagnostics
  • digital diagnostics
  • smart-equipment operation
CurrentPlumber · 10%
→
Keepfault finding · maintenance · safe equipment work
→
Addpredictive maintenance · telemetry-based diagnostics · smart buildings

Sources and update

Updated: 2026-09-25 · Assessment confidence: Medium

International Labour Organization · 2025Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure

Nearly 30,000 tasks; a global assessment of GenAI exposure across detailed occupational groups.

World Economic Forum · 2025The Future of Jobs Report 2025

A survey of more than 1,000 employers representing over 14 million workers across 55 economies.

O*NET Resource Center · 2026O*NET Database

Occupational, task, skill and work-context structure.